May 20, 2018

Oil prices shrug off USA record

02 February 2018, 09:13 | Kenneth Drake

The US oil production exceeded 10 million barrels per day for the first time in four decades

Oil production hits 10 million barrels per day

USA output surpassed 10 million bpd in November for the first time since 1970, the Energy Information Administration said this week.

On Friday, the price of Brent crude was up 0.09% to $69.85 a barrel, having earlier returned to the $70 level after three days. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 0.47% at $66.11 a barrel.

Russian Federation was followed by Saudi Arabia with 9.9mn barrels of average daily oil output.

In recent months, WTI prices have climbed higher and the rig count has also started to turn up again, which should boost production in the second half of 2018.

One thing necessary for the market to stay in balance will be a continued rise in USA shale production, says Goldman. Meantime, the dollar stopped losing value, re-moving one of the main positive drivers for oil/fuel prices over the past two months.

And while breaching this threshold has been something many analysts have feared would upset the delicate supply/demand balance supposedly being achieved by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) via its production cuts, the US boom may benefit offshore entities, including storage terminal operators in the Caribbean.

The market reversed course after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported gasoline inventories dropped by nearly 2 million barrels last week, and distillates like diesel declined by about the same.

The investment bank revised up its forecast for demand growth in 2018 and forecast that oil prices could rise to $82.50/b by mid-year.

OPEC has pegged OECD oil inventories at 133 million barrels above the five-year average as of November.

So the total lag from a change in prices to a change in production can be six to 12 months especially once delays in reporting are taken into account.

Following this, there have been an increasing number of incidents ratcheting up tension in the region - from worker abductions to fuel shortages to heavy clashes. EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly data for October 2017 show that the largest increases in USA crude oil exports were to Asia, followed by Europe.

Futures rose for a second day in NY, adding as much as 1.4 per cent. The decline in Venezuelan production is also providing support.

The cuts have offset gains in US crude production.

USA crude, meanwhile, is flowing into global markets.

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